* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 42 51 58 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 42 51 58 65 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 41 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 7 6 7 3 9 4 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 6 5 3 3 1 -2 0 -4 0 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 91 83 71 73 92 144 202 308 287 331 251 292 269 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 120 120 124 128 136 141 140 139 136 128 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 120 120 124 128 136 141 140 139 136 128 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 45 48 47 45 43 42 40 43 47 49 49 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 20 11 4 0 2 16 16 31 23 44 33 47 200 MB DIV 18 24 12 15 0 -32 -9 0 34 -3 29 11 34 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -5 -5 -1 4 8 5 7 LAND (KM) 1444 1328 1221 1119 1033 822 624 495 342 120 56 157 194 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.9 42.3 43.8 45.2 48.2 51.2 54.2 57.1 59.9 62.3 64.9 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 4 2 3 6 11 20 16 13 12 6 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 17. 26. 33. 40. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 39.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.9% 12.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.4% 3.7% 1.6% 1.0% 4.1% 3.4% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 9.7% 5.6% 3.5% 0.3% 1.4% 5.2% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 07/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/13/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 42 51 58 65 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 33 41 50 57 64 67 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 30 38 47 54 61 64 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 31 40 47 54 57 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT