* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 35 42 51 58 65 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 35 42 51 58 65 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 31 34 36 38 43 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 8 6 7 5 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 8 6 2 3 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 101 96 82 79 116 185 254 316 302 357 262 304 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 120 118 118 125 131 137 143 138 136 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 120 118 118 125 131 137 143 138 136 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 8 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 45 43 43 41 42 44 49 48 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 25 15 4 -1 -7 11 11 28 27 46 44 44 200 MB DIV -14 14 13 5 10 -7 -14 -5 24 28 22 30 15 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -7 -6 -4 1 4 6 6 LAND (KM) 1606 1498 1398 1298 1197 992 760 562 454 273 14 89 214 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.0 10.5 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 39.1 40.4 41.8 43.2 46.2 49.2 52.4 55.5 58.5 61.2 63.8 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 17 5 1 4 7 15 19 14 11 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 10. 17. 26. 33. 40. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 37.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.2% 13.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 3.2% 3.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 9.7% 5.5% 3.2% 0.1% 1.1% 5.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/12/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 30 35 42 51 58 65 70 72 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 28 33 40 49 56 63 68 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 29 36 45 52 59 64 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 22 29 38 45 52 57 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT