* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 31 38 46 55 62 69 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 31 38 46 55 62 69 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 27 30 33 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 5 4 3 6 4 6 9 5 13 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 9 11 5 4 4 -2 -1 -9 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 91 90 92 95 40 101 145 219 306 263 319 301 309 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.0 26.5 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 119 120 119 119 125 130 136 141 140 121 128 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 119 120 119 119 125 130 136 141 140 121 128 121 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 46 45 41 42 43 45 48 50 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 30 18 11 -1 5 22 11 21 32 50 70 200 MB DIV -39 -12 18 18 7 -8 -28 0 2 25 1 16 7 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -7 -9 -4 -4 0 4 LAND (KM) 1662 1546 1440 1331 1220 1016 800 645 394 35 91 40 -8 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.6 40.0 41.5 43.1 46.5 50.0 53.6 57.4 61.1 64.7 68.1 71.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 19 18 18 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 13 8 1 5 7 26 18 13 2 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 11. 18. 26. 35. 42. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 37.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 1.9% 3.2% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/12/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 21 24 31 38 46 55 62 69 59 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 20 23 30 37 45 54 61 68 58 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 20 27 34 42 51 58 65 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT