* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 38 45 53 60 66 68 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 38 45 53 60 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 28 30 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 8 4 4 3 5 9 7 11 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 5 8 9 5 4 1 -3 -4 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 72 78 87 102 53 122 216 272 314 290 311 274 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 122 124 126 121 128 130 136 135 133 120 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 122 124 126 121 128 130 136 135 133 120 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 49 46 43 44 45 42 41 44 45 46 51 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 45 31 24 15 3 -6 14 12 23 22 40 49 200 MB DIV -36 -46 -11 17 16 10 -15 -9 -1 16 15 10 34 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -8 -6 -3 1 3 LAND (KM) 1788 1682 1581 1468 1366 1147 932 724 586 307 46 132 40 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7 11.8 11.5 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 37.0 38.3 39.7 41.1 44.3 47.6 51.0 54.6 58.2 61.8 65.2 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 18 18 17 17 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 16 14 2 7 8 20 16 10 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 25. 33. 40. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 35.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/12/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 38 45 53 60 66 68 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 24 30 37 44 52 59 65 67 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 27 34 41 49 56 62 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT