* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 35 41 48 55 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 35 41 48 55 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 21 23 25 26 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 9 8 2 4 2 6 9 11 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 5 6 12 7 9 5 0 -1 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 75 66 70 74 89 91 92 228 250 294 270 296 266 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.5 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 124 120 119 123 121 128 132 135 134 135 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 124 120 119 123 121 128 132 135 134 135 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 47 49 48 46 45 46 43 43 44 47 50 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 39 25 23 8 1 0 11 -2 16 26 35 200 MB DIV -39 -48 -50 -9 15 17 1 -19 -6 1 19 14 6 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 1 -4 -6 -9 -7 -6 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1917 1847 1756 1664 1551 1331 1127 897 688 548 260 100 179 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.1 11.8 12.1 11.9 11.5 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.1 35.2 36.4 37.6 39.0 42.0 45.1 48.3 51.8 55.3 58.7 62.2 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 5 3 6 4 3 7 11 19 16 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 28. 35. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 34.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/12/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 35 41 48 55 61 64 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 34 40 47 54 60 63 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 25 31 37 44 51 57 60 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT