* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 41 47 53 59 67 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 41 47 53 59 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 37 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 13 11 9 3 3 4 2 7 13 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 6 8 11 12 4 7 2 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 71 67 63 48 43 43 348 133 184 223 302 287 300 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 27.0 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.8 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 125 128 123 122 120 123 126 131 137 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 125 128 123 122 120 123 126 131 137 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 49 48 48 48 47 46 46 46 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 9 7 6 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 63 60 51 39 26 10 2 3 17 3 3 14 200 MB DIV -12 -23 -33 -37 -45 7 15 0 -15 4 0 7 17 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 6 1 1 1 0 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 1712 1855 1897 1813 1710 1498 1290 1113 919 784 489 216 226 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.2 11.3 12.1 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.4 34.5 35.6 36.9 39.7 42.8 46.1 49.6 53.1 56.9 60.6 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 13 14 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 6 8 5 9 2 10 5 37 26 31 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 22. 28. 34. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 32.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 3.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/11/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 41 47 53 59 67 70 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 40 46 52 58 66 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 37 43 49 55 63 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 30 36 42 48 56 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT