* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 32 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 12 13 14 19 23 36 48 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 4 3 11 15 9 3 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 251 262 262 266 241 259 234 233 231 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.6 26.8 26.2 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 139 137 129 131 121 115 124 126 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 138 135 132 124 124 114 107 117 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 78 76 72 67 60 52 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 16 14 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 9 0 -5 -17 -46 -68 -68 -57 -48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 124 119 93 74 105 91 44 -9 -10 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 4 3 3 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1492 1558 1626 1665 1707 1779 1883 1986 2097 2030 1877 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.5 11.9 13.1 14.3 15.5 16.8 17.5 17.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.9 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.7 41.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 22 14 9 7 5 3 2 0 2 3 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -7. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -5. -11. -21. -26. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 30.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.72 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 17.9% 14.1% 8.8% 6.7% 11.3% 11.2% 16.3% Logistic: 2.5% 16.2% 5.2% 2.2% 1.1% 3.9% 3.9% 3.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 12.1% 6.5% 3.7% 2.6% 5.1% 5.2% 6.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 10/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 36 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT