* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 32 29 23 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 32 29 23 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 5 10 9 21 26 29 27 30 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 5 4 11 10 8 2 0 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 315 315 256 258 263 258 256 262 255 249 250 262 268 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 140 142 140 138 135 126 120 122 114 115 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 136 136 137 135 133 129 121 114 112 101 102 106 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 79 80 80 77 75 69 67 60 52 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 15 16 14 12 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 13 12 4 -7 -34 -88 -126 -127 -133 -113 -108 200 MB DIV 100 101 117 132 123 108 119 55 19 -13 -52 -22 -37 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 7 16 17 12 0 -15 -11 LAND (KM) 1421 1525 1581 1622 1652 1689 1697 1697 1701 1605 1503 1422 1398 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 12.2 13.6 15.6 18.0 20.1 21.2 20.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.7 31.4 31.9 32.3 32.9 33.2 33.3 33.1 32.4 31.5 30.7 30.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 6 6 7 8 11 12 9 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 19 15 11 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 7. 4. -2. -7. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 29.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.78 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.67 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 15.6% 12.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 16.7% 4.6% 2.2% 1.3% 3.9% 7.3% 6.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.2% 11.4% 5.7% 3.2% 0.4% 1.3% 6.0% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 10/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 32 29 23 18 16 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 31 33 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT