* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 41 38 33 27 23 20 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 41 38 33 27 23 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 32 27 22 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 1 4 7 9 13 22 33 33 31 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 3 3 5 12 13 4 -1 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 357 13 257 195 219 270 262 263 251 256 253 263 274 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 136 138 139 139 137 123 121 121 117 115 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 135 134 134 133 132 118 116 114 106 104 108 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 80 81 78 76 69 66 60 53 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 16 14 11 8 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 20 11 8 -5 -30 -78 -126 -126 -122 -100 -66 200 MB DIV 99 115 115 123 134 104 110 52 11 -20 -33 -21 -49 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 12 20 20 -2 -16 -16 LAND (KM) 1301 1408 1496 1543 1585 1635 1627 1611 1599 1491 1307 1151 1076 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.8 13.2 15.1 17.6 20.1 21.8 21.7 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.5 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.3 32.5 32.5 32.2 31.3 29.6 28.1 27.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 6 6 6 8 12 13 13 9 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 21 17 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 28.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.81 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.68 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 19.6% 15.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 24.6% 7.2% 2.2% 1.3% 4.7% 11.2% 7.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 7.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 2.8% 17.2% 8.0% 3.9% 0.5% 1.7% 8.2% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 10/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 33 38 41 38 33 27 23 20 19 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 36 39 36 31 25 21 18 17 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 33 30 25 19 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT