* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 10/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 42 37 29 22 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 42 37 29 22 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 36 33 28 23 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 0 4 6 11 9 17 26 33 38 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 3 2 5 11 12 11 3 -8 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 210 217 241 213 204 232 276 268 258 252 242 255 271 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.9 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 137 138 139 136 133 126 120 123 113 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 142 136 135 133 130 128 120 113 113 99 97 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 80 81 81 77 74 70 67 60 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 14 14 12 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 16 14 3 -10 -25 -53 -97 -128 -130 -147 -114 200 MB DIV 65 94 94 91 102 109 99 80 49 11 -4 -53 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 3 15 20 10 4 -8 LAND (KM) 1167 1280 1394 1477 1550 1661 1717 1728 1729 1720 1638 1566 1556 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.7 15.8 17.9 20.0 21.1 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 28.3 29.5 30.5 31.3 32.5 33.2 33.5 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.1 32.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 10 7 5 6 9 11 11 9 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 18 22 19 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 12. 4. -3. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 27.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 10/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.89 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.82 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 37.9% 24.1% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 62.5% 38.8% 20.0% 13.5% 18.2% 19.3% 13.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 31.3% 7.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.1% 4.1% 3.0% Consensus: 7.2% 43.9% 23.5% 11.5% 4.8% 6.8% 12.7% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 10/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 36 39 42 42 37 29 22 15 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 35 38 38 33 25 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 30 33 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 24 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT