* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 37 41 49 57 65 74 78 83 87 91 V (KT) LAND 25 32 37 40 44 52 59 68 76 81 86 90 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 30 33 35 37 42 49 58 70 80 83 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 14 13 16 12 6 7 7 6 4 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 9 8 4 1 7 7 8 7 9 6 7 SHEAR DIR 66 76 60 56 75 70 61 90 144 141 228 349 178 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 136 137 141 143 142 137 128 127 124 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 131 131 132 136 141 143 140 129 128 118 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 69 71 73 76 77 75 71 70 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 22 21 20 23 24 26 28 28 29 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 53 45 47 58 59 64 59 52 46 43 43 200 MB DIV 61 51 52 59 52 33 5 39 23 46 39 59 48 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -9 -7 -8 -4 3 11 21 8 4 1 11 LAND (KM) -11 108 216 303 393 530 685 881 1168 1547 1943 1844 1741 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 12.8 12.3 12.1 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.1 14.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.7 23.2 25.4 28.3 31.9 35.6 38.5 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 7 9 13 17 17 18 10 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 5 6 7 7 3 5 6 1 2 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 24. 32. 40. 49. 53. 58. 62. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 16.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.85 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.2% 15.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 20.7% 12.4% 4.9% 2.6% 7.1% 11.6% 16.9% Bayesian: 3.9% 6.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 5.7% 2.4% 24.9% Consensus: 7.1% 15.3% 10.1% 4.8% 0.9% 4.3% 8.4% 13.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 09/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 32 37 40 44 52 59 68 76 81 86 90 93 18HR AGO 25 24 29 32 36 44 51 60 68 73 78 82 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 43 52 60 65 70 74 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 34 43 51 56 61 65 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT