* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 43 52 53 51 47 39 31 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 43 45 48 46 42 34 26 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 37 35 31 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 2 2 7 18 18 36 46 57 62 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 0 -1 1 4 0 3 2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 330 342 349 326 272 229 251 247 236 250 264 284 297 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.6 28.8 27.7 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 171 173 165 153 137 126 120 117 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 163 164 164 168 163 150 132 119 108 101 98 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 4 4 3 5 6 5 4 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 71 71 70 69 71 66 54 44 45 46 51 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 12 13 10 7 6 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 41 24 22 12 -10 -2 9 55 9 -41 -55 -38 -37 200 MB DIV 45 58 70 77 78 96 94 60 43 44 32 27 21 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 9 3 -14 0 4 6 4 LAND (KM) 68 90 94 157 243 240 -11 292 712 937 1216 1396 1496 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.0 19.9 22.1 24.5 27.1 29.9 31.5 31.6 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.3 83.7 84.0 84.1 83.1 80.6 76.9 72.9 68.3 63.7 60.4 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 13 19 22 23 24 18 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 35 47 61 102 106 43 18 4 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 3. -3. -12. -22. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 27. 28. 26. 22. 14. 6. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 83.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.99 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 53.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 18.1% 13.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 47.6% 27.9% 15.0% 9.2% 21.9% 7.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 22.7% 13.8% 7.4% 3.1% 7.3% 8.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 43 45 48 46 42 34 26 17 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 41 43 46 44 40 32 24 15 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 36 38 41 39 35 27 19 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 28 30 33 31 27 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT