* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 44 45 44 40 37 31 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 44 43 42 38 35 29 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 32 30 27 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 11 4 8 15 21 27 38 47 60 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -2 0 -1 1 6 3 0 4 0 5 SHEAR DIR 296 305 313 329 297 220 244 253 234 258 260 280 294 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.3 28.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 171 172 170 160 146 130 124 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 164 164 165 165 167 158 144 128 117 108 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 4 4 3 5 6 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 69 67 71 68 61 49 42 40 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 9 11 8 6 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 46 34 22 36 12 -1 20 10 63 -6 -48 -24 -14 200 MB DIV 48 47 55 60 85 96 93 62 40 55 62 15 5 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -2 -2 -3 7 9 -32 12 2 6 -2 LAND (KM) 54 72 56 75 148 311 137 67 487 936 1187 1453 1611 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 19.0 21.0 23.1 25.6 28.3 30.7 31.2 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.1 83.7 84.3 84.6 84.5 82.4 79.2 75.2 70.2 64.5 59.9 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 11 16 20 24 28 24 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 38 48 66 90 47 42 11 7 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -3. -10. -19. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. -1. -5. -10. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 19. 20. 19. 15. 12. 6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 82.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.99 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 17.3% 12.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 32.5% 17.5% 6.3% 3.1% 9.9% 4.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 16.7% 10.0% 4.4% 1.0% 3.3% 7.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 29 36 44 43 42 38 35 29 21 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 35 43 42 41 37 34 28 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 40 39 38 34 31 25 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 31 30 26 23 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT