* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 28 33 42 45 45 46 46 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 22 26 28 34 43 46 43 45 45 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 23 26 28 30 32 31 30 28 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 14 11 5 11 21 23 26 32 42 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -3 0 0 1 3 3 3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 288 286 292 300 304 252 225 259 274 267 274 280 303 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.7 28.9 27.7 27.0 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 171 169 172 168 155 138 129 128 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 165 165 166 165 161 169 171 156 135 125 118 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 4 3 5 6 5 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 67 72 73 68 54 46 41 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 7 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 37 30 35 30 15 7 35 -11 -32 -20 -11 200 MB DIV 35 40 59 45 62 84 96 83 55 31 54 -2 -16 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 15 10 12 13 13 8 LAND (KM) 10 12 -4 2 61 172 211 11 275 721 1089 1304 1331 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.4 18.1 19.9 21.9 24.2 26.6 29.0 29.5 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.5 84.1 84.8 85.5 86.0 84.5 81.1 76.7 72.0 66.5 61.5 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 9 15 22 24 25 26 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 26 35 55 76 69 60 45 29 4 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 17. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 83.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 21.3% 14.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 48.4% 33.9% 17.6% 8.8% 18.5% 14.4% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 23.3% 16.2% 8.7% 2.9% 6.2% 10.9% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 22 26 28 34 43 46 43 45 45 43 39 18HR AGO 25 24 21 25 27 33 42 45 42 44 44 42 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 33 42 45 42 44 44 42 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 32 35 32 34 34 32 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT