* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 28 33 36 34 32 30 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 13 10 10 14 32 37 34 31 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 0 -3 0 -3 5 6 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 257 261 264 253 263 252 220 195 208 212 226 235 244 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 170 171 166 166 169 168 168 164 156 159 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 167 169 170 165 166 164 157 154 150 143 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 75 76 74 72 69 61 53 52 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 45 58 57 60 70 66 52 18 -8 -20 -42 -36 200 MB DIV 121 80 58 66 75 79 99 115 79 30 9 2 4 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 8 3 0 5 -1 -5 -10 -13 -9 4 LAND (KM) 15 -15 -69 -144 -189 -89 -96 -142 -107 -145 -39 101 139 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.8 16.1 17.5 18.5 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.4 84.0 84.8 85.8 88.1 89.9 90.5 90.0 89.2 87.8 86.4 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 7 9 11 12 9 7 5 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 7 49 0 0 43 30 24 37 66 82 71 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. 11. 9. 7. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 83.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.64 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 16.6% 11.7% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 25.0% 12.0% 3.5% 2.2% 11.4% 29.2% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 14.0% 7.9% 3.3% 999.0% 3.8% 14.4% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 31 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 27 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT