* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 35 39 44 49 53 52 52 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 27 27 31 35 41 44 44 38 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 30 31 32 33 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 17 14 11 8 9 15 21 16 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 -7 1 3 0 5 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 263 252 243 232 224 180 197 131 110 136 159 145 119 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.5 29.7 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 171 166 162 165 146 144 157 164 160 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 163 169 171 166 166 168 142 135 157 163 152 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 4 4 5 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 85 80 76 77 78 83 78 77 75 73 71 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 52 47 58 75 84 74 59 9 -6 -12 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 190 170 135 112 102 106 117 112 75 81 43 26 24 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 8 9 2 -4 0 -2 -10 -6 -3 0 LAND (KM) 21 0 -34 -108 -205 23 140 240 282 139 -26 -77 -7 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.5 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.9 13.8 13.8 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.4 83.8 84.5 85.4 87.9 90.6 92.6 93.3 91.9 89.8 88.1 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 8 11 13 12 7 2 11 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 16 58 33 44 11 14 12 12 14 35 42 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 22. 22. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 83.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.81 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 14.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 35.3% 15.1% 7.6% 5.9% 13.4% 18.1% 21.4% Logistic: 10.9% 65.6% 43.9% 17.4% 8.9% 40.7% 69.7% 56.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.3% 2.2% 0.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.3% 3.7% Consensus: 5.9% 36.7% 20.4% 8.3% 999.0% 18.1% 29.4% 27.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 28 27 27 31 35 41 44 44 38 31 28 18HR AGO 30 29 26 25 25 29 33 39 42 42 36 29 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 29 33 39 42 42 36 29 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 28 34 37 37 31 24 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT