* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 39 40 46 54 59 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 27 27 30 31 37 45 50 39 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 30 29 30 33 36 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 15 14 15 8 15 3 15 14 17 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -5 -7 -6 0 -3 11 0 7 8 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 252 247 241 250 258 243 209 28 69 126 181 192 201 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.8 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 170 168 162 161 147 148 166 164 169 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 164 167 170 168 170 169 145 148 172 162 159 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -54.1 -52.9 -54.0 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 3 2 5 5 6 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 85 86 80 77 79 85 80 73 69 71 71 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 6 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 70 55 48 57 78 71 70 8 -11 -19 -6 -6 200 MB DIV 181 162 155 117 99 92 138 141 109 104 57 11 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 -1 -6 0 -1 -8 -9 -5 0 LAND (KM) 21 -7 -39 -97 -183 40 252 435 454 158 -91 -19 0 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.1 13.8 13.4 12.4 11.5 10.5 10.2 12.5 14.6 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.5 83.8 84.4 85.2 87.7 90.9 93.1 92.8 91.3 89.9 88.6 88.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 8 10 15 16 7 9 14 10 5 0 HEAT CONTENT 28 8 58 33 0 14 9 10 9 14 41 61 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -4. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 16. 24. 29. 28. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 83.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.82 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 12.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 36.2% 15.2% 7.9% 6.2% 13.5% 17.1% 20.1% Logistic: 14.7% 65.1% 42.8% 17.9% 9.6% 40.9% 59.4% 42.1% Bayesian: 2.1% 28.0% 10.6% 0.1% 999.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 7.8% 43.1% 22.9% 8.6% 999.0% 18.3% 25.6% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 28 27 27 30 31 37 45 50 39 31 29 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 31 32 38 46 51 40 32 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 28 29 35 43 48 37 29 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 24 30 38 43 32 24 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT