* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 39 43 47 52 55 58 61 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 29 28 27 33 38 41 44 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 28 27 27 30 30 32 34 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 9 11 15 16 4 3 15 15 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 3 5 -8 -6 -2 5 9 1 1 6 SHEAR DIR 293 300 298 280 280 227 222 199 309 43 56 175 196 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 169 169 169 159 158 153 150 159 155 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 168 169 169 167 166 160 164 153 145 160 154 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.6 -52.8 -53.7 -52.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 4 2 3 2 4 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 79 81 84 84 85 87 81 77 77 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 68 73 85 97 71 75 79 82 51 12 12 -13 200 MB DIV 126 145 186 201 177 136 77 74 95 105 92 90 64 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 -1 4 7 3 -1 4 1 -1 7 LAND (KM) 108 86 43 0 -43 -119 -111 173 379 417 290 67 80 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.6 12.7 11.3 10.1 10.0 11.3 13.6 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.7 83.1 83.5 83.9 84.6 86.0 88.3 90.6 91.2 91.3 91.9 93.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 4 5 11 14 8 4 10 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 36 9 69 44 34 10 8 8 10 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 82.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.98 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 167.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.93 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 38.0% 15.1% 7.5% 5.9% 13.3% 16.7% 21.7% Logistic: 3.3% 30.0% 11.9% 2.2% 1.2% 14.7% 34.5% 40.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 4.6% Consensus: 3.2% 24.8% 9.6% 3.2% 2.4% 9.3% 17.1% 22.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/24/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 29 28 27 33 38 41 44 46 43 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 28 27 26 32 37 40 43 45 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 23 22 21 27 32 35 38 40 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT