* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 33 35 40 47 57 65 70 69 78 67 V (KT) LAND 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 38 47 51 51 59 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 32 36 40 42 44 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 10 8 12 12 8 13 21 20 15 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 2 3 -5 -7 4 3 9 0 2 6 SHEAR DIR 263 286 285 281 254 215 182 81 56 27 58 120 175 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.1 28.9 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 169 166 159 157 147 136 152 167 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 168 168 166 162 159 161 164 150 135 161 174 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 80 83 85 84 85 81 76 79 79 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 9 11 14 16 18 16 20 13 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 80 102 134 140 94 88 74 38 14 18 -23 200 MB DIV 134 126 141 179 187 161 107 111 94 131 101 66 118 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -7 -7 -12 LAND (KM) 54 7 -48 -106 -139 -178 -51 259 508 544 358 37 -158 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.2 12.7 10.6 8.8 7.6 9.5 13.0 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.4 83.9 84.4 84.9 85.8 86.8 88.7 90.5 90.1 89.1 89.5 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 4 6 12 14 10 6 15 17 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 17 58 57 51 0 28 9 7 4 8 18 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 7. 11. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 3. 5. 10. 17. 27. 35. 40. 39. 48. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 83.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 153.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.87 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 44.1% 21.3% 8.6% 7.1% 14.1% 18.1% 21.2% Logistic: 3.3% 40.6% 19.4% 5.0% 3.0% 9.6% 30.3% 39.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.4% Consensus: 3.4% 28.7% 13.7% 4.5% 999.0% 7.9% 16.2% 21.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 38 47 51 51 59 38 18HR AGO 30 29 26 26 26 26 26 37 46 50 50 58 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 37 46 50 50 58 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 31 40 44 44 52 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT