* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 42 45 48 52 53 53 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 33 37 38 38 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 31 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 16 16 16 24 18 9 15 23 21 11 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 -1 -8 -7 0 7 10 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 264 262 254 239 227 215 203 151 60 57 46 77 168 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.1 28.7 29.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 168 164 161 158 147 137 149 163 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 170 170 163 160 157 162 165 150 136 157 173 171 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.8 -54.1 -53.0 -54.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 7 6 4 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 79 79 83 85 83 83 83 75 78 78 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 65 73 91 139 145 111 84 66 42 23 5 -8 200 MB DIV 128 129 120 141 165 155 122 85 106 90 81 97 101 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 6 5 3 5 5 0 0 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 30 -32 -88 -110 -92 -101 -30 233 505 531 309 100 -118 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 14.8 13.2 11.0 8.8 7.5 8.9 12.2 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.5 84.3 85.0 85.6 86.7 87.6 88.9 90.4 89.9 88.4 88.3 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 6 6 6 12 14 10 7 15 17 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 67 56 77 76 72 30 10 7 3 6 15 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 23. 23. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 83.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.79 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 46.2% 24.7% 9.0% 7.3% 14.2% 18.4% 21.0% Logistic: 999.0% 64.6% 42.8% 18.0% 12.3% 40.2% 46.0% 51.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 17.2% 6.6% 0.3% 999.0% 2.7% 2.8% 24.6% Consensus: 999.0% 42.7% 24.7% 9.1% 999.0% 19.0% 22.4% 32.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 33 37 38 38 42 32 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 35 39 40 40 44 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 32 36 37 37 41 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 26 30 31 31 35 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT