* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/30/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 51 56 61 65 71 76 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 51 56 61 65 71 76 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 31 35 39 42 47 53 60 70 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 4 4 8 6 4 4 2 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -3 0 -2 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 286 296 237 266 181 237 154 150 132 330 34 18 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 125 122 121 120 120 118 119 122 127 134 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 124 118 114 113 111 111 109 111 115 121 129 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 64 62 58 58 55 54 49 48 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 59 61 57 73 87 74 71 76 93 98 87 200 MB DIV 38 26 30 34 43 28 50 58 30 -12 -3 13 19 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 0 0 5 1 3 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1135 1268 1380 1482 1592 1789 1958 2138 2109 1910 1669 1445 1248 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.0 18.5 17.6 16.7 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.2 30.2 31.1 32.1 33.9 35.6 37.4 39.4 41.7 44.2 46.7 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 8 9 9 11 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 6 4 3 2 3 5 6 7 16 22 37 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 46. 51. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 28.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/30/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.60 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.3% 12.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 30.4% 16.3% 6.7% 3.4% 16.2% 24.7% 41.4% Bayesian: 5.3% 22.7% 9.6% 0.8% 0.1% 6.0% 3.0% 1.4% Consensus: 6.4% 23.1% 13.0% 5.1% 1.2% 7.4% 9.2% 14.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/30/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 44 51 56 61 65 71 76 83 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 47 52 57 61 67 72 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 46 51 55 61 66 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 37 42 46 52 57 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT