* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 50 57 62 65 69 73 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 50 57 62 65 69 73 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 43 47 52 59 66 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 4 7 4 12 3 8 6 4 2 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 0 1 -6 -1 -3 0 -7 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 48 33 181 218 232 240 200 204 149 150 177 178 187 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 128 124 121 118 118 118 119 122 125 132 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 129 122 117 114 111 110 110 112 115 118 125 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 67 63 57 51 48 49 45 45 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 56 45 49 57 60 64 84 71 69 59 77 86 82 200 MB DIV 52 46 33 32 29 20 29 40 22 -16 4 -4 -8 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 2 0 1 -1 1 1 2 -1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1002 1145 1260 1365 1472 1685 1903 2162 2095 1887 1679 1465 1302 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 19.0 19.6 19.6 19.3 18.7 17.9 16.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 28.1 29.1 30.0 30.9 33.0 35.2 37.7 40.0 42.3 44.5 46.7 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 8 4 2 0 3 10 10 14 17 35 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 32. 37. 40. 44. 48. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 26.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.95 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.63 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 16.9% 13.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 37.4% 22.8% 11.8% 7.6% 13.3% 30.3% 40.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 1.4% Consensus: 4.7% 20.3% 12.9% 6.7% 2.6% 4.6% 15.0% 14.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/30/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 45 50 57 62 65 69 73 77 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 41 46 53 58 61 65 69 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 40 47 52 55 59 63 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 30 37 42 45 49 53 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT