* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 47 53 59 62 65 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 47 53 59 62 65 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 44 50 56 62 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 2 4 8 8 7 4 7 4 3 5 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 0 -3 0 -3 0 -1 2 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 51 47 261 241 233 219 152 156 88 148 295 249 245 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 130 127 123 122 124 123 120 118 118 123 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 127 124 119 116 115 112 110 108 110 118 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 70 67 64 60 59 57 55 47 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 12 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 48 48 63 70 66 81 71 55 40 49 48 200 MB DIV 43 41 43 40 32 35 36 34 52 18 -21 -19 16 700-850 TADV 3 2 4 7 7 -1 -2 1 6 2 3 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 666 809 964 1147 1333 1629 1840 1966 2090 2181 2151 1997 1809 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.2 18.1 17.6 17.6 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.2 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 24.9 26.2 27.8 29.5 32.4 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8 39.8 42.7 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 15 13 8 5 6 8 12 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 13 8 2 1 9 9 6 7 8 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 28. 34. 37. 40. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 23.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 40 47 53 59 62 65 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 44 50 56 59 62 65 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 45 51 54 57 60 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 37 43 46 49 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT