* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 46 52 55 59 61 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 46 52 55 59 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 36 40 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 4 3 9 18 17 13 8 11 4 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 4 1 -2 -4 -7 -5 -5 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 44 51 54 281 259 240 246 191 170 107 103 304 301 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 132 129 126 117 118 120 122 118 118 119 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 131 128 125 112 113 115 113 106 106 111 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 71 70 62 57 55 58 60 63 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 30 27 38 56 50 66 91 70 57 47 60 200 MB DIV 22 40 42 37 28 29 25 24 72 56 -1 -19 2 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 5 7 3 -7 -2 -2 -1 5 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 499 558 666 820 1020 1350 1701 2046 2056 1961 1936 1946 1869 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.7 16.0 17.1 18.2 19.8 19.9 19.1 17.9 17.6 17.7 18.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.8 26.4 29.9 33.3 36.5 38.8 39.8 40.3 41.3 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 16 17 19 17 16 14 9 3 3 9 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 7 6 5 0 1 1 2 4 4 10 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 21. 27. 30. 34. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 22.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 96.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 46 52 55 59 61 65 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 34 38 44 50 53 57 59 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 33 39 45 48 52 54 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 32 38 41 45 47 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT