* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 46 51 55 61 64 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 46 51 55 61 64 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 38 41 44 49 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 17 10 6 3 12 7 7 5 6 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -5 -3 -5 -5 -5 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 57 55 56 45 18 246 235 230 199 151 129 164 242 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 146 142 138 128 120 121 122 121 119 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 144 139 136 125 115 116 116 112 108 110 112 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 78 76 73 65 62 57 57 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 11 11 10 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 43 40 37 51 66 60 72 77 65 52 52 200 MB DIV 26 12 31 47 54 30 38 19 22 50 19 -19 -2 700-850 TADV -8 -5 1 1 3 7 0 -3 -2 1 0 4 -2 LAND (KM) 612 664 700 763 861 1170 1505 1834 2122 2021 1925 1884 1854 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 17.5 18.7 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.8 18.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.5 28.1 31.2 34.4 37.1 39.3 40.6 41.7 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 14 17 15 14 13 8 5 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 21 19 18 12 3 6 8 1 3 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 36. 39. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 22.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 39 46 51 55 61 64 69 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 38 45 50 54 60 63 68 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 40 45 49 55 58 63 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 37 41 47 50 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT