* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 41 50 56 63 69 73 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 41 50 56 63 69 73 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 47 52 57 63 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 22 16 10 7 1 7 6 2 5 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 62 60 55 52 31 215 260 194 188 109 254 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 145 142 138 131 123 122 124 122 121 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 145 142 137 133 126 116 115 115 111 111 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 78 80 78 73 64 56 55 55 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 12 14 14 15 17 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 41 44 43 31 50 57 61 79 64 69 68 200 MB DIV 42 34 22 35 51 52 40 45 28 22 27 -1 -1 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -4 1 1 2 3 -1 0 0 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 511 587 636 702 766 924 1153 1413 1683 1928 2074 2144 2067 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 15.3 16.7 17.7 18.2 17.9 17.8 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.4 23.1 23.9 24.6 26.1 28.1 30.4 32.9 35.3 36.7 37.8 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 9 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 13 21 28 22 16 4 2 5 12 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 16. 25. 31. 38. 44. 48. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 21.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 33 41 50 56 63 69 73 80 82 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 31 39 48 54 61 67 71 78 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 35 44 50 57 63 67 74 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 36 42 49 55 59 66 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT