* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 48 58 65 71 78 81 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 48 58 65 71 78 81 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 32 38 46 54 60 64 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 31 26 20 13 12 4 4 3 4 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -7 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 64 66 69 71 64 46 56 248 307 201 321 306 306 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 148 146 143 138 130 123 123 122 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 147 146 142 139 134 126 117 115 112 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 78 79 78 75 70 64 60 57 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 13 13 13 15 16 18 19 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 63 54 47 46 54 44 32 58 61 62 52 56 56 200 MB DIV 21 34 23 12 19 48 34 44 34 19 19 25 10 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -11 -6 0 0 2 5 0 0 9 2 3 LAND (KM) 409 512 597 654 720 841 1010 1258 1557 1792 1984 2118 2173 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.4 16.7 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.2 24.0 25.3 26.9 29.1 31.8 34.0 35.8 37.1 38.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 9 11 13 13 10 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 12 20 30 25 10 5 6 1 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 23. 33. 40. 46. 53. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 20.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 35.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 39 48 58 65 71 78 81 85 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 37 46 56 63 69 76 79 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 33 42 52 59 65 72 75 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 45 52 58 65 68 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT