* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 43 47 48 47 44 41 34 30 29 20 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 43 47 48 47 44 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 35 32 30 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 30 29 24 31 21 22 16 9 15 23 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 0 0 -2 2 0 -2 12 9 8 3 SHEAR DIR 226 222 219 217 213 236 232 245 214 235 234 213 223 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.4 24.0 20.8 19.7 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 133 134 135 136 134 128 98 83 79 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 118 115 115 115 115 112 108 86 75 73 78 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 8 6 8 5 9 8 12 4 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 63 60 47 45 43 47 46 57 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 23 24 26 24 23 20 16 12 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 72 62 59 76 52 73 -4 48 -41 40 -6 1 200 MB DIV 101 124 98 81 93 23 27 -3 21 15 68 90 39 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 4 1 2 -3 -3 -6 -12 23 46 10 LAND (KM) 302 417 302 244 188 147 108 25 -85 -267 -524 -625 -695 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 7 7 6 6 4 7 11 12 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 6 6 6 4 4 1 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -12. -16. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 6. -1. -5. -6. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.3 88.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.80 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.51 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.61 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 43 47 48 47 44 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 40 44 45 44 41 30 26 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 40 39 36 25 21 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 30 29 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT