* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 47 52 56 51 47 44 42 40 34 V (KT) LAND 35 32 36 40 43 48 51 47 43 39 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 35 37 38 40 40 37 34 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 19 14 22 23 31 30 28 14 10 11 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 7 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 7 12 10 SHEAR DIR 250 252 254 229 215 227 227 250 240 248 254 255 238 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.5 22.9 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 133 133 127 126 126 125 123 118 92 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 125 122 120 112 110 109 107 105 101 82 72 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 7 9 5 10 4 14 7 13 700-500 MB RH 78 77 74 72 69 67 57 44 46 45 45 50 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 18 21 23 20 17 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 66 63 59 88 89 67 44 -7 25 42 10 200 MB DIV 82 92 76 109 123 84 85 11 16 5 25 28 70 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 1 0 9 11 -9 3 -8 -1 -1 23 LAND (KM) 40 -22 27 133 249 422 311 257 184 60 -69 -283 -578 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 8 8 8 6 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 53 7 10 9 5 8 13 7 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 6. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 16. 13. 9. 7. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 87.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.60 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.0% 11.1% 6.6% 5.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.2% 4.6% 2.3% 1.8% 4.0% 0.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 36 40 43 48 51 47 43 39 32 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 50 53 49 45 41 34 30 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 43 46 42 38 34 27 23 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 36 32 28 24 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT