* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 46 48 52 53 52 47 42 34 26 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 35 39 43 44 34 29 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 42 35 38 40 43 34 29 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 13 5 3 6 8 23 30 38 37 44 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 1 0 1 -2 4 4 0 -2 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 217 208 235 254 156 273 302 275 250 254 243 251 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.7 26.1 24.5 22.2 20.2 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 137 135 135 135 124 115 101 88 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 124 122 121 122 127 115 100 87 78 72 72 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 4 5 2 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 75 71 73 64 59 53 59 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 84 95 92 94 89 98 42 23 -58 -35 -18 32 200 MB DIV 88 90 93 91 100 77 100 73 42 47 66 113 79 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 7 24 43 25 14 10 2 12 LAND (KM) 42 24 16 0 -41 96 376 133 -144 -311 -510 -644 -587 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 22.4 24.9 28.5 31.4 32.9 35.0 37.1 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.2 87.2 87.3 87.4 87.3 86.9 85.4 84.4 84.4 85.2 84.8 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 9 17 19 10 9 11 11 17 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 28 55 43 12 33 2 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -2. -7. -13. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 17. 19. 17. 12. 7. -1. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 87.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.58 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 31.2% 17.8% 9.3% 8.4% 14.7% 19.5% 18.7% Logistic: 3.8% 28.9% 14.8% 3.4% 1.0% 3.8% 4.3% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 4.2% 20.5% 11.1% 4.3% 3.1% 6.2% 8.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 35 39 43 44 34 29 27 27 28 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 31 35 39 40 30 25 23 23 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 25 29 33 34 24 19 17 17 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 17 21 25 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT