* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 42 51 54 51 46 41 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 26 26 26 27 35 38 36 28 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 23 24 26 26 31 31 30 25 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 11 16 16 8 12 17 20 15 17 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 3 3 3 4 1 -3 -3 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 260 230 236 254 231 251 251 290 293 263 254 277 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.2 26.6 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 147 144 138 134 132 135 129 123 112 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 135 132 130 124 120 120 123 119 113 100 95 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 77 76 74 70 68 63 60 58 58 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 15 17 21 22 18 12 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 93 90 87 90 93 99 100 106 93 52 -30 -50 -78 200 MB DIV 86 76 85 85 74 73 55 58 33 33 31 29 42 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 5 -1 0 -1 9 13 5 5 7 9 LAND (KM) 84 53 15 -7 -16 -64 -64 111 320 241 -58 9 -10 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.9 21.0 22.6 24.4 26.6 29.4 32.6 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.5 87.7 87.7 87.7 88.0 88.0 88.1 87.0 84.9 82.4 80.1 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 9 12 17 19 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 33 26 63 58 36 8 34 5 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 12. 6. -2. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 17. 26. 29. 26. 21. 16. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 87.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.53 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.2% 12.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 5.8% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.4% 8.1% 5.2% 2.5% 0.1% 0.7% 6.6% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 26 26 26 27 35 38 36 28 28 24 18HR AGO 25 24 25 24 24 24 25 33 36 34 26 26 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 20 21 29 32 30 22 22 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 16 24 27 25 17 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT