* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 37 44 51 56 57 60 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 30 34 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 18 13 9 14 11 12 7 11 9 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 1 2 4 3 0 2 2 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 249 240 267 231 247 202 249 242 261 288 280 260 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 150 150 145 141 137 133 131 131 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 134 135 135 134 129 127 122 118 117 117 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 76 77 75 73 70 67 61 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 13 16 18 18 18 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 87 87 87 99 103 113 114 94 83 43 10 200 MB DIV 77 79 83 75 92 63 73 54 35 36 30 28 40 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 -2 0 -1 2 -1 2 1 1 11 1 LAND (KM) 153 99 61 22 -17 -49 -118 -149 -48 58 216 381 268 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.7 21.6 23.0 24.6 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.9 87.2 87.6 88.0 88.4 88.8 89.1 89.7 90.1 90.4 90.2 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 34 35 9 65 47 20 12 15 9 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 9. 9. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 19. 26. 31. 32. 35. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 86.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.79 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.53 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 13.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.5% 12.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 20.1% 9.4% 1.1% 0.2% 7.7% 14.9% 43.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 4.2% Consensus: 3.5% 13.0% 7.7% 2.6% 0.1% 2.7% 10.9% 15.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 30 34 28 25 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 26 25 24 24 24 27 31 25 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 20 19 18 18 18 21 25 19 16 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT