* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 32 35 37 45 50 53 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 33 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 26 27 27 27 27 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 23 18 15 18 13 15 7 6 4 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 2 3 0 4 -1 3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 267 259 248 242 264 227 234 212 218 197 278 265 299 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 147 150 147 143 143 141 138 133 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 134 132 133 134 131 126 128 125 123 118 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 10 8 10 8 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 76 75 75 74 70 70 64 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 15 17 18 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 70 83 83 92 101 114 111 94 85 65 32 200 MB DIV 69 73 75 77 73 82 68 67 30 34 12 22 17 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 1 -2 3 -2 6 -1 2 2 8 0 LAND (KM) 188 138 90 43 -7 -49 -115 -146 -86 -9 79 201 351 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.5 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.4 86.8 87.2 87.7 88.4 88.9 89.2 89.7 90.3 91.0 91.4 91.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 4 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 33 34 26 65 49 37 16 33 18 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 7. 9. 9. 9. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 20. 25. 28. 32. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 86.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.7% 12.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 23.9% 12.4% 2.8% 1.0% 5.4% 7.0% 37.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 5.1% Consensus: 3.5% 13.8% 8.4% 3.2% 0.3% 1.9% 7.4% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 33 32 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 31 30 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 26 25 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT