* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 44 46 45 39 34 29 24 18 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 22 22 16 24 26 32 34 37 33 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 -3 -8 -4 -7 -3 -6 -2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 257 257 271 270 242 270 261 280 272 288 284 276 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 142 144 141 138 139 134 131 126 120 117 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 123 123 118 112 113 108 106 103 101 100 99 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 5 7 4 7 3 7 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 63 63 65 63 62 59 61 63 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -54 -58 -83 -72 -33 -28 -29 -59 -58 -72 -58 -26 200 MB DIV -2 36 32 15 -4 36 13 41 16 42 -3 31 -6 700-850 TADV 3 10 7 1 5 -1 1 1 5 11 8 24 13 LAND (KM) -22 -60 -94 -96 -136 -201 -179 -214 -257 -346 -484 -457 -330 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.2 30.0 30.7 31.3 31.9 32.0 32.4 32.8 33.6 34.8 36.3 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.7 82.5 83.3 84.0 84.9 85.6 85.9 86.0 85.9 85.0 82.9 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 7 3 3 2 3 5 9 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 24 23 15 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -7. -13. -20. -26. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 15. 9. 4. -1. -6. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.1 80.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.82 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 84.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 10.4% Logistic: 2.0% 12.0% 7.3% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.6% 8.9% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% 3.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/13/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT