* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 46 47 43 41 33 30 23 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 21 17 22 22 17 24 25 32 29 36 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 0 -3 -6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 285 278 256 252 267 249 256 265 276 277 287 276 280 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 144 143 144 143 144 142 137 132 125 120 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 125 123 122 117 117 114 111 108 103 101 99 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 7 5 7 4 8 4 7 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 70 63 64 58 59 55 58 60 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 5 2 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -69 -47 -51 -78 -34 -55 -15 -71 -46 -79 -40 -47 200 MB DIV 16 8 37 34 8 19 31 25 12 19 29 18 8 700-850 TADV 2 2 10 5 1 3 2 3 11 7 19 12 15 LAND (KM) 2 -48 -80 -65 -70 -111 -143 -153 -189 -264 -383 -420 -376 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.2 29.0 29.7 30.3 31.1 31.3 31.7 32.1 32.8 33.8 35.2 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.1 81.9 82.6 83.2 84.3 84.9 85.5 85.6 85.6 85.1 83.7 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 4 3 2 2 5 6 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 28 23 22 30 28 25 25 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -12. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 17. 13. 11. 3. 0. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.3 80.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.39 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.6% 8.9% 7.1% 4.6% 7.3% 10.3% Logistic: 1.3% 5.8% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT