* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 42 40 40 34 30 26 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 21 17 22 17 24 27 29 34 34 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -6 -2 -1 -7 -5 -9 -3 -7 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 294 286 277 263 254 272 247 272 266 293 288 302 290 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 157 149 145 140 138 135 135 132 129 124 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 131 126 121 116 110 110 107 105 102 101 100 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 5 7 2 7 2 6 700-500 MB RH 72 69 71 72 70 64 63 61 61 60 63 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -49 -65 -47 -51 -88 -58 -63 -52 -81 -85 -69 -41 200 MB DIV 38 12 5 20 36 -17 43 -5 17 -2 24 16 20 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 10 4 3 -2 1 0 8 11 8 17 LAND (KM) 117 31 -13 -39 -60 -121 -167 -192 -255 -322 -367 -378 -316 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.8 27.6 28.5 29.2 30.6 31.4 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.8 34.9 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.8 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.7 83.2 83.9 84.2 84.5 84.3 83.4 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 8 7 3 4 3 4 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 114 58 57 26 21 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -11. -18. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 15. 15. 9. 5. 1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.1 79.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 13.8% 9.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% Logistic: 2.5% 14.0% 8.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.4% 5.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT