* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 40 40 38 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 26 22 17 22 17 22 21 31 26 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -2 -4 -2 -3 -6 -5 -7 -4 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 304 285 277 272 258 276 261 267 271 283 287 290 285 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 161 151 147 147 146 146 147 146 147 139 129 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 145 134 130 127 123 120 120 118 119 115 107 103 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 5 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 72 73 65 68 61 63 61 63 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -15 -47 -64 -42 -81 -39 -66 -26 -78 -56 -75 -43 200 MB DIV 35 41 14 6 32 -8 23 7 21 15 15 33 21 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 1 11 -3 3 0 1 4 7 13 7 LAND (KM) 170 63 -16 -69 -53 -24 -67 -86 -86 -101 -188 -313 -413 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.1 28.8 29.9 30.7 30.8 31.1 31.4 32.2 33.3 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 79.5 80.4 81.3 82.1 83.4 84.4 85.1 85.7 86.1 86.3 85.9 84.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 7 4 3 2 3 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 113 83 58 24 14 27 27 27 32 28 23 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.7 78.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.35 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.76 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% Logistic: 1.7% 10.3% 5.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.1% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/12/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT