* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 52 59 61 61 62 62 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 52 42 32 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 34 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 4 9 18 15 14 19 16 21 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 -6 -4 -9 -4 SHEAR DIR 331 328 30 25 329 339 299 274 251 259 248 270 259 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 165 169 170 164 155 153 157 157 162 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 150 153 156 155 147 136 130 131 128 134 127 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 57 59 61 62 67 68 71 66 65 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -67 -62 -51 -53 -49 -37 -60 -47 -76 -54 -58 -57 200 MB DIV 7 -1 9 12 -11 13 19 10 32 -19 39 -2 31 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 0 2 4 2 2 3 -4 2 0 LAND (KM) 244 288 345 348 345 323 107 -58 -59 -29 -34 -34 -115 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.0 25.0 26.1 27.4 28.7 29.6 30.1 30.4 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 71.1 72.3 73.5 74.7 77.1 79.1 80.9 82.0 83.0 83.5 84.4 85.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 6 6 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 87 76 67 82 59 82 112 46 39 40 41 38 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 20. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 32. 39. 41. 41. 42. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.9 69.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 74.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.93 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 41.2% 25.5% 14.3% 0.0% 19.2% 32.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 13.9% 8.5% 4.8% 0.0% 6.4% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/11/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 41 52 42 32 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 38 49 39 29 26 25 24 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 32 43 33 23 20 19 18 18 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT