* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 48 54 57 57 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 48 48 35 30 28 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 40 30 28 27 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 4 4 19 17 20 18 19 17 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -6 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 327 352 317 348 339 323 308 276 247 262 245 263 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.8 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 165 169 172 166 155 152 155 157 164 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 155 157 157 149 137 131 129 129 139 136 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 50 53 52 55 59 60 65 68 70 65 63 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -55 -72 -64 -50 -67 -39 -57 -42 -80 -44 -68 -33 200 MB DIV 17 9 0 3 4 6 21 -2 21 -1 8 9 11 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 0 0 1 4 3 9 -1 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 245 285 344 388 381 381 175 -3 -75 -36 -4 21 72 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.4 28.7 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 70.1 71.4 72.7 74.0 76.3 78.4 80.3 81.7 82.8 83.7 84.8 86.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 10 10 8 5 3 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 65 86 69 72 80 83 119 9 20 39 5 43 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 28. 34. 37. 37. 40. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.6 68.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 74.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 38.0% 23.1% 9.3% 0.0% 13.9% 23.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 12.8% 7.7% 3.1% 0.0% 4.6% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/10/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 30 38 48 48 35 30 28 33 35 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 36 46 46 33 28 26 31 33 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 41 41 28 23 21 26 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT