* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 39 48 58 61 61 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 39 48 58 50 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 42 39 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 6 5 11 17 16 18 20 18 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 -4 -6 0 -7 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 313 346 331 302 4 296 332 285 267 247 249 244 265 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 160 162 165 170 170 161 153 148 148 152 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 152 152 154 156 154 143 134 124 122 124 135 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 7 9 6 700-500 MB RH 47 50 53 52 56 61 61 66 66 65 57 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -51 -57 -72 -63 -55 -64 -37 -73 -65 -76 -49 -37 200 MB DIV -5 20 7 3 1 -14 12 23 9 12 -16 20 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 3 7 6 3 3 -4 1 LAND (KM) 259 241 283 344 377 392 289 79 -25 -70 -104 -86 -11 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.6 25.8 27.1 28.6 29.8 30.4 30.5 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 69.0 70.3 71.7 72.9 75.2 77.3 79.3 81.0 82.0 82.8 83.2 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 11 11 11 10 6 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 89 68 86 67 74 71 98 62 32 18 37 31 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 25. 31. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 38. 41. 41. 43. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.0 67.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 76.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 34.4% 19.1% 6.4% 0.0% 18.2% 25.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 11.6% 6.4% 2.1% 0.0% 6.1% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/10/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 27 31 39 48 58 50 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 37 46 56 48 34 28 26 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 40 50 42 28 22 20 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT