* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 46 53 57 59 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 38 46 53 57 59 60 53 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 37 41 43 44 46 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 7 6 8 16 17 19 20 25 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -2 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 266 290 329 340 326 317 306 317 274 261 250 248 239 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 160 158 160 167 172 170 160 151 145 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 153 150 152 155 157 153 140 130 119 114 114 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 14 14 12 12 11 10 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 51 55 58 61 63 69 68 64 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -59 -56 -51 -56 -61 -63 -51 -46 -74 -61 -70 -34 200 MB DIV 4 -12 -2 8 -2 0 -8 12 30 18 11 -14 15 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 -1 -4 1 2 5 9 8 3 2 -4 LAND (KM) 205 244 312 303 343 464 513 336 214 140 74 -4 0 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.2 25.6 27.0 28.5 30.0 31.1 31.7 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.9 67.2 68.5 69.8 72.5 74.7 76.7 78.4 79.8 80.6 81.2 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 82 97 93 69 76 70 77 69 57 29 22 35 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 20. 26. 31. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 33. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.9 64.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 83.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 23.2% 11.1% 2.4% 0.0% 6.8% 25.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 7.9% 3.7% 0.8% 0.0% 2.3% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/10/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 30 38 46 53 57 59 60 53 46 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 36 44 51 55 57 58 51 44 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 39 46 50 52 53 46 39 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT