* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 56 59 60 61 60 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 56 59 60 61 60 42 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 37 40 43 44 45 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 9 9 11 13 19 15 27 25 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 256 285 316 334 336 311 313 327 278 265 245 260 243 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 159 160 165 170 170 162 153 145 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 153 153 153 155 155 153 142 131 120 115 113 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 50 53 58 60 59 64 61 60 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -32 -45 -44 -41 -58 -52 -51 -38 -83 -52 -80 -36 200 MB DIV 9 -1 -2 12 9 5 -1 -2 23 -1 1 -8 8 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 2 0 1 2 4 7 7 10 2 -3 LAND (KM) 222 196 255 260 289 427 499 366 242 156 70 8 -4 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.5 29.9 31.2 31.8 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.5 66.9 68.3 69.7 72.5 74.6 76.4 78.1 79.6 80.6 81.0 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 70 92 101 70 82 71 72 68 58 33 22 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):294/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 26. 31. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 36. 40. 40. 41. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.5 64.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 83.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 154.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 39.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% Consensus: 1.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/09/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 56 59 60 61 60 42 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 36 45 53 56 57 58 57 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 31 40 48 51 52 53 52 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT