* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 49 52 54 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 49 52 54 56 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 31 34 35 36 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 8 8 13 18 21 25 26 28 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 -4 -5 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 249 258 270 288 320 324 328 323 323 295 273 251 255 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 156 158 158 158 163 170 171 167 161 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 150 152 151 149 151 153 151 145 138 129 126 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 14 13 14 12 12 11 11 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 49 51 57 61 63 63 66 68 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -42 -46 -51 -57 -59 -58 -51 -43 -28 -50 -50 -52 200 MB DIV -4 3 -3 -8 1 11 19 -2 18 22 13 30 -14 700-850 TADV 9 6 0 -1 2 -4 3 5 3 3 6 2 3 LAND (KM) 338 214 151 177 243 276 400 480 471 354 287 286 239 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 25.1 26.4 27.7 29.0 30.2 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.8 65.0 66.3 67.5 69.9 72.4 74.1 75.4 76.6 77.7 78.3 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 68 64 78 92 88 86 71 64 96 59 59 57 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 36. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.5 62.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 78.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 13.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/09/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 27 35 42 49 52 54 56 56 56 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 41 48 51 53 55 55 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 36 43 46 48 50 50 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT