* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 21 29 38 47 54 58 63 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 21 29 38 47 54 58 63 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 18 17 17 19 22 25 30 35 40 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 10 8 9 5 7 8 12 20 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -3 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 224 233 251 271 273 321 1 313 289 295 268 262 270 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.1 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 156 159 165 173 172 162 154 147 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 152 150 150 152 155 159 152 140 128 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 49 49 53 59 60 58 60 58 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -20 -30 -36 -33 -40 -39 -38 -45 -32 -45 -57 -91 200 MB DIV 10 2 5 5 0 11 11 20 10 20 7 2 3 700-850 TADV 7 9 7 6 2 1 2 6 5 7 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 603 443 304 214 217 301 435 625 679 588 452 425 491 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.9 23.7 25.8 28.0 30.1 31.8 32.9 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 61.5 62.9 64.3 65.5 68.2 70.6 72.4 73.3 73.6 73.2 72.4 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 67 71 64 71 92 64 68 64 52 41 27 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 20. 26. 31. 36. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 9. 18. 27. 34. 38. 43. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.9 60.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 73.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.93 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 154.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 11.7% 5.4% 1.4% 0.0% 999.0% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 4.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 999.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/09/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 19 21 29 38 47 54 58 63 65 65 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 21 29 38 47 54 58 63 65 65 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 27 36 45 52 56 61 63 63 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT