* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 06/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 33 28 28 28 33 26 22 23 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 33 26 28 28 33 26 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 21 23 22 23 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 31 36 35 36 32 19 23 30 35 43 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 7 4 11 0 6 1 0 0 7 2 SHEAR DIR 249 227 226 233 226 227 253 242 242 235 251 262 277 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.9 26.2 24.4 23.4 21.9 19.3 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 129 127 123 116 120 107 102 95 86 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 123 120 115 112 111 108 114 102 100 93 83 78 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 7 6 9 8 8 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 81 79 76 74 72 69 63 54 47 41 46 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 17 15 16 16 21 18 20 28 850 MB ENV VOR 36 57 79 85 76 46 -5 21 -20 -42 -68 -66 -82 200 MB DIV 69 81 95 90 81 102 43 -19 -12 2 43 67 43 700-850 TADV 0 2 10 16 14 18 28 23 9 -25 -42 24 41 LAND (KM) 11 180 315 407 322 240 -23 314 641 1109 1236 1183 1667 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 23.2 24.4 25.5 26.4 27.6 28.4 29.3 30.6 32.6 35.1 38.1 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.3 88.5 88.5 88.1 86.0 82.4 77.5 71.8 64.4 55.1 44.6 34.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 10 13 19 24 29 37 43 44 43 HEAT CONTENT 1 15 20 29 33 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -23. -29. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 2. 2. 2. 8. 4. 4. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. -2. -2. -2. 3. -4. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.7 88.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 06/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 06/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 06/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 33 26 28 28 33 26 22 23 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 32 25 27 27 32 25 21 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 28 21 23 23 28 21 17 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 15 17 17 22 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT