* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 06/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 32 36 33 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 31 33 33 36 30 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 31 30 29 27 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 16 23 27 25 31 46 67 78 80 64 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 5 5 10 6 6 0 1 -5 9 0 SHEAR DIR 273 266 236 230 241 231 245 249 243 247 247 244 240 SST (C) 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.3 25.6 25.2 23.7 23.4 17.4 3.7 4.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 143 138 134 134 130 114 112 102 102 79 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 135 128 123 123 121 107 106 97 97 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -50.5 -50.3 -49.7 -49.0 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 79 78 74 67 58 50 41 41 50 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 15 14 17 16 17 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 44 54 57 48 -17 48 93 123 202 176 188 200 MB DIV 62 86 83 82 104 101 87 44 27 52 49 68 68 700-850 TADV 6 0 3 11 14 21 30 51 -5 27 -5 -18 -8 LAND (KM) -54 -67 12 150 289 342 -29 157 353 626 615 358 591 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 17 22 27 31 35 33 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 71 54 3 13 19 23 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):327/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -16. -29. -44. -56. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 2. 5. 3. 5. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 2. 6. 3. 5. -2. -9. -16. -27. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 88.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 06/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 5.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 06/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 06/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 31 33 33 36 30 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 36 30 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 31 25 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 17 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT