* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 06/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 35 36 38 34 30 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 30 31 33 27 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 28 27 30 28 26 22 23 20 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 28 23 19 31 40 43 48 58 60 66 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 4 4 5 7 6 -1 1 -3 -10 -10 SHEAR DIR 284 262 260 256 227 235 229 245 253 252 255 270 288 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.9 26.7 24.9 24.9 23.4 20.6 7.8 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 156 148 140 136 137 124 109 112 103 90 71 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 150 139 131 127 127 114 103 109 100 86 70 73 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 82 82 79 69 60 60 62 64 67 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 14 17 16 15 15 16 12 18 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 49 43 47 50 26 -16 44 55 89 49 52 200 MB DIV 87 79 63 89 100 88 89 63 59 81 94 52 32 700-850 TADV 5 12 7 0 0 11 14 30 40 -28 -8 5 74 LAND (KM) 91 -14 -73 -69 56 373 214 -102 172 618 586 496 999 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 15 18 25 34 40 40 35 34 HEAT CONTENT 40 10 62 39 9 26 8 0 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -16. -25. -36. -46. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. -3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 4. 0. -7. -14. -29. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 87.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 06/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -20.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.95 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.7% 10.8% 8.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 21.8% 10.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 13.9% 7.4% 4.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 06/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 06/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 30 31 33 27 27 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 32 33 35 29 29 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 29 30 32 26 26 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 24 26 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT