* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 06/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 45 53 53 57 61 62 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 28 28 32 35 43 43 38 45 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 29 29 28 33 35 36 33 39 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 12 14 12 13 6 6 7 4 13 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 4 2 4 3 -1 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 303 296 267 272 276 259 288 286 321 209 231 241 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 26.4 25.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 167 168 167 153 151 151 145 139 121 111 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 155 156 154 143 141 141 133 128 113 106 104 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -52.4 -51.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 8 8 9 9 11 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 83 85 82 80 74 67 58 49 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 55 70 81 74 75 51 21 19 -37 -46 -46 200 MB DIV 74 73 72 72 97 102 81 82 27 19 14 9 19 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 6 1 8 7 8 15 9 0 0 -19 LAND (KM) 95 71 0 -21 -10 2 94 42 154 -32 306 742 1090 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.9 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.1 27.7 29.2 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.6 88.2 88.4 88.3 87.5 86.1 84.7 82.8 80.5 77.1 72.2 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 4 5 9 11 13 13 15 20 25 32 HEAT CONTENT 30 43 21 74 10 8 50 37 35 40 11 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 23. 23. 27. 31. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 86.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 06/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.79 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -9.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.94 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 42.5% 23.5% 11.7% 8.8% 10.9% 21.9% Logistic: 4.9% 37.8% 18.3% 5.7% 0.0% 3.2% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 4.5% 30.6% 14.7% 6.0% 3.0% 4.7% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 06/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 06/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 28 28 32 35 43 43 38 45 46 43 18HR AGO 30 29 30 26 26 30 33 41 41 36 43 44 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 22 22 26 29 37 37 32 39 40 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 27 35 35 30 37 38 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT