* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 06/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 43 47 46 45 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 27 27 30 34 33 32 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 26 29 29 28 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 25 21 16 18 15 17 10 13 15 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 7 3 7 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 297 289 285 287 269 259 228 250 246 265 278 266 281 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 26.9 26.4 24.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 156 150 139 138 141 126 123 106 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 153 151 147 137 126 127 132 117 118 103 96 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 78 81 82 83 81 84 83 80 76 66 56 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 11 13 14 15 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 46 36 33 51 53 44 23 7 11 1 0 200 MB DIV 110 107 89 95 84 71 109 101 99 75 47 30 71 700-850 TADV 5 2 -3 -5 0 9 3 13 14 15 47 61 23 LAND (KM) 116 114 163 107 7 -98 -77 87 225 46 179 506 1029 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.8 22.3 24.3 26.6 29.3 31.8 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.7 85.8 86.8 87.6 88.4 88.3 87.1 85.2 82.7 79.0 72.4 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 6 8 11 15 18 26 35 41 HEAT CONTENT 44 50 48 42 41 70 23 12 18 12 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 4. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 18. 22. 21. 20. 20. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 83.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 06/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -19.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 2.4% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 06/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 06/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 27 27 30 34 33 32 32 28 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 25 25 28 32 31 30 30 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 21 21 24 28 27 26 26 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT