* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 10/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 51 66 80 87 92 96 94 89 89 87 86 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 51 66 70 85 91 94 92 87 87 85 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 35 40 48 58 68 78 79 75 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 20 11 6 9 3 3 5 7 9 13 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 3 0 -1 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 60 63 29 25 118 103 191 217 197 185 221 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.0 28.6 27.5 27.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 171 171 171 171 172 172 170 146 130 125 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 162 165 165 166 168 172 156 132 115 108 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 7 8 6 6 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 69 69 72 71 75 74 74 70 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 10 12 12 15 17 18 19 22 22 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 46 44 49 59 77 69 48 45 47 58 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 65 61 39 42 31 39 63 63 69 86 50 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 10 10 14 7 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 100 74 70 87 244 207 -9 192 370 271 123 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 9 12 11 10 11 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 94 112 137 134 150 140 109 118 57 30 17 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 9. 11. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 36. 50. 57. 62. 66. 64. 59. 59. 57. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 76.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 125.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.83 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 21.6% 14.9% 10.7% 10.3% 12.6% 33.9% 62.4% Logistic: 3.8% 13.5% 7.8% 3.2% 1.4% 4.7% 11.7% 44.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 2.5% 3.7% 21.8% Consensus: 3.7% 13.2% 8.1% 4.7% 3.9% 6.6% 16.4% 42.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 10/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 38 42 51 66 70 85 91 94 92 87 87 85 84 85 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 49 64 68 83 89 92 90 85 85 83 82 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 43 58 62 77 83 86 84 79 79 77 76 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 48 52 67 73 76 74 69 69 67 66 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT